The initial fuel for the rumors about Max Verstappen leaving Red Bull in 2025 appears to have been ignited at the Bahrain Grand Prix. Eyewitness accounts and subsequent reports highlighted a seemingly tense discussion between Max Verstappen’s manager and Red Bull’s influential advisor, Helmut Marko. In the pressure cooker environment of Formula 1, such visible interactions within a team’s leadership often trigger speculation about underlying issues or disagreements. While the exact content of their exchange remains undisclosed, it undoubtedly contributed to the growing narrative of potential unrest within the Red Bull camp.

The Contractual Nuance: A Performance Clause

Adding another layer of complexity to the situation is the well-documented presence of a performance-related clause in Max Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull, which extends until 2028. This clause theoretically provides Verstappen with an avenue to explore opportunities with other teams should Red Bull’s performance fall below a certain agreed-upon level. Although the specific details and metrics of this clause are confidential, its very existence introduces an element of uncertainty and empowers Verstappen with a degree of control over his future beyond the stated contract duration.

A Measured Perspective: Bahrain’s Bigger Picture

However, it’s crucial to avoid jumping to conclusions based solely on the events of the Bahrain Grand Prix. While Red Bull undeniably experienced a less-than-ideal weekend, encountering various challenges and not achieving their expected level of performance, Max Verstappen still managed to secure points. This ability to deliver results even when the machinery isn’t operating at its peak underscores his exceptional talent and the underlying competitiveness of the Red Bull package. Suggesting an imminent departure based on one challenging race seems like an oversimplification, especially considering Red Bull’s consistent front-running status in recent years.

My assessment leans towards Max Verstappen remaining with Red Bull for the foreseeable future. He has established himself as the undisputed leader within the team, enjoys strong relationships with current key technical and strategic personnel, and has achieved unparalleled success, including multiple World Championships, in Red Bull machinery.

The Loyalty Factor: Voices Close to Jos Verstappen

Picture: PlanetF1

Interestingly, reports from individuals close to Max’s father, Jos Verstappen, emphasize Max’s deep-seated loyalty to the Red Bull organization. These sources suggest that Verstappen appreciates the team’s unwavering support and their proactive efforts to address any performance-related concerns. This loyalty, forged through years of shared triumphs and mutual respect, should not be underestimated as a significant factor influencing his decision-making process.

The 2026 Wildcard: Navigating New Regulations

The impending arrival of the new Formula 1 regulations in 2026 presents another strong argument for Verstappen to stay with Red Bull. These significant technical changes have the potential to dramatically alter the competitive landscape. Why would Verstappen, currently in a potentially advantageous position with a well-established team, risk moving to a new environment that might struggle to adapt to the fresh set of rules? Remaining with a familiar and historically successful team like Red Bull offers a greater degree of certainty and a higher probability of successfully navigating the upcoming regulatory shift.

Potential Reasons for Verstappen leaving Red Bull

Despite the reasons for staying, it’s important to acknowledge the factors that could potentially lead Verstappen to consider leaving. Any sustained dip in Red Bull’s performance could understandably trigger his performance clause. The early and somewhat abrupt dismissal of Liam Lawson, a highly regarded young driver with a difficult car to drive, might have caused unease within the team, particularly if Verstappen held a different opinion. Furthermore, the departure of key figures like Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley could be interpreted as a sign of a shifting dynamic or a potential weakening of the team’s technical prowess and long-term prospects.

Potential Teams if Verstappen Leaves Red Bull

Picture: Giorgio Piola

If, hypothetically, Verstappen is leaving Red Bull, where could he realistically land? Two teams frequently emerge in these discussions. Aston Martin, under the ownership of Lawrence Stroll and with the significant addition of Adrian Newey to their technical leadership, presents a compelling option. The prospect of reuniting with Newey, the architect of his championship-winning Red Bulls, could be a powerful lure, especially if Fernando Alonso, whose future in F1 is uncertain, were to vacate a seat.

Mercedes also remains a strong contender. Team Principal Toto Wolff has long been an admirer of Verstappen’s talent and has reportedly made attempts to sign him in the past. With last year’s Hamilton’s departure, Mercedes has an immediate need for a top-tier driver. While they have high hopes for their junior talent, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the opportunity to secure the services of the reigning world champion would be incredibly attractive, potentially leading to George Russell becoming the driver to make way.

Ultimately, it’s widely acknowledged that any team on the Formula 1 grid with the financial capacity would make a serious bid for Verstappen’s services. His status as the consensus best driver in Formula 1 makes him an invaluable asset for any team with serious championship ambitions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the speculation surrounding Max Verstappen leaving Red Bull in 2025 continues to generate considerable discussion, the weight of the evidence currently suggests that a departure is unlikely in the near future. Factors such as his established success within the team, his personal aspirations, the impending regulatory changes in 2026, and the team’s overall strength point towards his continued presence at Red Bull. While potential alternative scenarios and destinations exist, the stability and championship-winning pedigree he enjoys with Red Bull make it the most logical place for him to remain. The question of “is Verstappen leaving” remains a topic of debate, but the smart money would likely be on him staying put.